Buyer's Market Emerging? What This Spring Means for Buyers

If you've been following the property headlines lately, you've probably noticed a lot of talk about falling values and slowing sales. It's true that the market has cooled. But a slower market isn't necessarily bad news, especially if you're planning to buy, refinance or review your investment strategy.

At a recent spring market webinar hosted by lender Bluestone, Tim Lawless, Head of Research at Cotality, shared his latest take on Australia's housing market. His message was that today's market needs a more nuanced view than the headlines suggest. Here's what's happening, and what it could mean for you.

Buyers are being more cautious

Demand for property has been under pressure for a while. Higher living costs, elevated household debt, a softer jobs market and tighter borrowing capacity have all made Australians more careful about big financial decisions. Slower population growth has also reduced the number of active buyers.

That caution shows up in the numbers. According to Cotality, national sales activity is running around 15% below where it was a year ago, with the biggest slowdowns in Sydney and Melbourne. Many investors have also taken a wait-and-see approach since the Federal Budget while they assess how policy settings could affect future returns.

Fewer sellers, but more homes on the market

Here's where it gets interesting. Many homeowners are holding off on selling rather than entering a softer market, so new listings remain below average across much of the country.

You'd expect that to mean fewer homes for sale, but the opposite is happening. With fewer buyers around, properties are taking longer to sell and listings are building up. The total number of homes advertised for sale is now above average in most markets.

For sellers, that means lower auction clearance rates, longer selling times and larger discounts. For buyers, it means something you may not have seen in years: more choice, less competition and more room to negotiate.

Home values have eased, but this is a cycle

After peaking in March 2026, the national home value index has fallen for five straight months. Every capital city except Darwin recorded a fall through winter, and regional markets are also trending lower.

The pace of decline sits between Australia's two most recent downturns. It's not as sharp as the 2022–23 correction, but faster than the gradual easing of 2017–19. As Tim Lawless highlighted, housing markets move in cycles, and this is another phase of that cycle rather than a change in the long-term drivers behind Australian property.

If you felt priced out over the past few years, now may be a good time to reassess what you can afford.

Renters are still feeling the squeeze

While the sales market has softened, rental markets remain tight. The national vacancy rate is sitting at around 1.9%, with most capital cities below 2%. Rental growth is showing early signs of slowing, largely because renters can only stretch so far.

For renters weighing up whether to buy, tight rental conditions combined with softer purchase prices could make it worth running the numbers.

The housing shortage hasn't gone away

Building approvals and commencements have lifted, but completions haven't followed through in most states, with South Australia and Western Australia the exceptions. High construction costs, labour shortages and competition from major infrastructure projects are all holding back new supply.

That shortage is a challenge for affordability. But over time, limited new stock should also help put a floor under property values.

What this means for you

• Buying your first or next home? More stock and longer selling times can give you more negotiating power. Having your finance pre-approved means you're ready to move when the right property comes up.

• Put your plans on hold? Changing prices may have changed your buying power. It's worth checking where you stand now.

• Already own a home? A changing market is a good prompt to review your loan. A refinance could help you secure a sharper rate or a structure that better suits your goals.

• Investing or planning for retirement? Residential property isn't the only option. Commercial property, SMSF lending and construction finance may suit investors looking beyond traditional residential loans.

Cut through the headlines with IQ Loans

The headlines tell you what the market is doing. What matters is what it means for your situation. At IQ Loans, we can help you understand your borrowing power, compare options across our lender panel and structure your finance. Cut through the headlines with IQ Loans so you're ready when opportunity knocks. Book a chat with IQ+ Loans today.

Important information: This article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not financial advice. Consider seeking independent advice before making any financial decision. Lending criteria, fees and charges apply.