RBA Cash Rate Predictions Spring 2026: What the Big Four Banks Expect
Australia's major banks are split heading into spring, with some tipping one more Reserve Bank rate rise before the year is out, and others betting the RBA is already done. Here's where the cash rate stands, what CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ are each forecasting, and what it could mean for your home loan.
Key takeaways
The cash rate is currently 4.35%, after a 25 basis point rise in May 2026.
The RBA holds its next two board meetings on 29 September and in November.
NAB is the most hawkish, forecasting a further hike to 4.60%.
CBA and ANZ expect a hold in September, with a hike more likely in November.
Westpac expects at least one more rise before year-end.
Where the cash rate stands right now
The cash rate currently sits at 4.35%, after the RBA's Monetary Policy Board lifted it by 25 basis points from 4.10% at its 5 May 2026 meeting, a reminder that this cycle has been about managing renewed inflation pressure, not delivering relief. The Board then held steady at its August meeting. Its next decision lands on Tuesday, 29 September, with a further meeting to follow in November before the year winds down.
What CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ are predicting
Heading into the September meeting, the big four are not reading from the same page.
NAB is the most hawkish of the majors, forecasting another 25 basis point rise that would take the cash rate to 4.60%.
Westpac also expects at least one more rate rise before the end of the year, though its economists see this landing later in 2026 rather than necessarily at the September meeting.
CommBank and ANZ are each pencilling in a hold at the September meeting — but not ruling out further tightening. Both have flagged that a hike is more likely to land in November, once the Board has had another full quarter of inflation and jobs data to work with.
Underpinning the debate is stronger-than-expected growth: the economy expanded 0.4% in the June quarter, ahead of most economists' forecasts, fuelling speculation that the RBA still has room to tighten rather than sit still. A broader panel of more than 40 economists surveyed by Finder was similarly split, though a hold was the more common call for the immediate near-term meeting.
What it means for your mortgage
For anyone on a variable rate, the practical takeaway is that spring is unlikely to bring relief, and there's a real chance of at least one further rate rise before summer. It's worth stress-testing your repayments against a further 0.25% increase and using the September and November decisions as natural checkpoints to review your loan and compare what else is on the market.
FAQ
Is the RBA going to raise rates again in 2026? The major banks are divided. NAB and Westpac expect at least one more rise before the end of the year, while CBA and ANZ expect the RBA to hold in September and possibly move in November instead.
What is the current RBA cash rate? As of September 2026, the cash rate is 4.35%, following a rise from 4.10% in May 2026.
When is the next RBA interest rate decision? The Monetary Policy Board next meets on 29 September 2026, with a further meeting in November.
Wondering how a further rate rise would affect your repayments? Get in touch with the IQ+ Loans teamfor a free loan health check — we'll run the numbers and let you know whether it's worth locking in a rate or shopping around.
Rate forecasts current as of early September 2026 and sourced from RBA statements and major bank commentary; always confirm the latest position before making financial decisions.